Minaya Did the Right Thing Avoiding Sheets

With the recent signing of Oliver Perez all the clamor among Mets fans has been about how the team hasn't changed since last year. Many fans (myself included) were calling for Ben Sheets to be the guy to fill out the Mets rotation.

Well, it turns out Omar Minaya knew something the fans didn't (as usual).

It was reported by MLB.com that Sheets will most likely need surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon in his right elbow.

The Rangers and Sheets were apparently very close on a two-year deal but a physical stopped the deal when the torn tendon was revealed. The Brewers will likely have to pay for Sheets to have the surgery since he was employed by them when he was injured.

Sheets is still on the open market, so a team could possibly sign him to a two-year deal and allow him to rehab.

Mets Offer K-Rod Two Year Deal

The previously mentioned offer the Mets made to Francisco Rodriguez is reportedly a two year contract with an option for a third year. No monetary terms were mentioned and when approached by reporters K-Rod said the Mets told him not to discuss the negotiations.

Omar Minaya is doing a nice job playing the market in his favor. It looks like there are very few teams, if any, that are willing to pay the necessary money for K-Rod. The Mets and Indians seem to be the only interested teams at this point with the Brewers preoccupied with CC Sabathia. Rodriguez's former team, the Angels, seem ready to move on with someone else, perhaps Scott Shields or Jose Arredondo, at closer.

With such little demand for closers and a great amount of supply (K-Rod, Brian Fuentes, Kerry Wood, Trevor Hoffman, and closers rumored to be available via trade), Minaya certainly has the upper hand in these negotiations.

If Rodriguez and agent Paul Kinzer leave the offer on the table for too long the Mets can turn to another option, leaving K-Rod out in the cold with smaller market teams and an offer significantly smaller than what he was expecting coming into the offseason.

This contract would be ideal for the Mets, although negotations will continue and Kinzer will likely try to get a third year guarenteed.

Winter Meetings Underway, Minaya Goes to Work

The Winter Meetings kicked off this morning in Las Vegas, Nevada. General Mangers and other executives from all 30 Major League teams as well as a plethora of player agents and even some players themselves are at the Bellagio hotel discussing contracts and trades.

According to Matthew Cerrone at MetsBlog, several players including Francisco Rodriguez and CC Sabathia have been spotted in the lobby of the Bellagio.

Mets GM Omar Minaya and his team of executives arrived last night along with owner Jeff Wilpon. Apparently, Minaya enjoyed a steak dinner with free agent closer Francisco Rodriguez shortly after arriving in Vegas.

According to SI's Jon Heyman, the Mets offered K-Rod a three-year contract possibly with an option for a fourth year. The deal is expected to be for $12-13 million per year.

So much for the talk of Rodriguez receiving a five-year deal worth $15 million per season, which would have been ridiculous. In October, I expressed concern about the Mets signing Rodriguez, saying he wasn't worth his asking price and could be on the decline. Although I still think K-Rod's saves record means nothing, a three-year deal sounds good to me and I'll be happy to have Rodriguez on those terms as long as the Mets acquire a quality set-up man to go with him.

Now that the offer is on the table its K-Rod's move. Minaya will not sit around and wait for his answer, as the Mets GM has already met with free agent closers Brian Fuentes and Trevor Hoffman this afternoon.

Stay tuned for more from the Winter Meetings.

Murphy Will Play Left in 2009

Omar Minaya was on Mets Hot Stove on SNY tonight. He informed the public that
Daniel Murphy strained his hamstring in the Arizona Fall League and will skip Winter Ball to prepare himself for Spring Training.

Minaya added that Murphy would have played left field in winter ball and that most of his playing time will be in left in 2009.

So it looks the like the Mets will go with Murphy and Tatis in left field. They will likely try to trade Luis Castillo and his big contract. Castillo will make $18.75 million over the next three years.

The Mets will already be paying two people that will not be of service to the team in 2009. They are Billy Wagner and Willie Randolph. The signing of a free agent second baseman will likely be dependent on how much of Castillo's contract they are able to unload, if any at all.

Orlando Hudson, a three-time Gold Glove winner, is the top candidate for the job, however he might not be an affordable option due to Castillo's contract.

If the Mets are unable to unload Castillo's contract I suggest that they hang on to him and sign a less expensive second baseman/utility man such as Nick Punto or Willie Bloomquist to platoon with Castillo.

Punto is a hard nosed player who would fit right in with Jerry Manuel's new strategy of situational hitting.

A Look Ahead to 2009, Part I: Starting Pitching

The MLB hot stove is heating up. At midnight, when the calendar turns to November 14th, teams can be begin to sign free agents.

At midnight, General Manager Omar Minaya and the Mets will begin perhaps their most important offseason in team history. In this three part series, I will look at the Mets needs for the 2009 season and how I think Minaya should take care of them.

The biggest need for the Mets this offseason is pitching. The most glaring weakness is the bullpen, but I will start with a look at the starting rotation. You know the saying, "pitching wins championships," and it all starts with the guys who take the hill to begin the game. Consistent quality starts from the rotation can work wonders for the bullpen.

Under Contract

Johan Santana, 2008 Stats: 16-7, 2.53 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 206 K's.

The biggest piece of the Mets rotation was acuired last off-season. Santana proved to Mets fans this year that he can be an the ace in New York. His complete game shutout on three days rest in a must-win game was an incredible feat, especially since Santana did it with a torn meniscus in his knee.

Santana led the National League in ERA and innings pitched en route to finishing third in the Cy Young voting in 2008. The Mets will rely on him to carry the load in 2009 and he will set the tone for the rest of the rotation.

Mike Pelfrey, 2008 Stats: 13-11, 3.72 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 110 K's.

Omar Minaya was able to hold onto Pelfrey, who could have been part of the Santana deal, and it worked out in his favor. Mets' fans were growing impatient with the young prospect, but the 6'7" Pelfrey had a breakout season in 2008.

After a slow start, Pelfrey emerged as a solid pitcher for the Mets during the summer months when he posted a 3.00 ERA to go with an 11-2 record. Pelfrey's success can be attributed to his regaining his confidence and subsequently pounding the strike zone with his mid-90's sinking fastball. Big Pelf tied for the National League lead with 29 double plays. Expect Pelfrey to build on his success in 2009 at Citi Field.

John Maine, 2008 Stats: 10-8, 4.18 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 122 K's.

After a solid 2007, Maine seemed to struggle throughout 2008. Maine often had problems finding the strike zone, as evidenced by his 1.82 strikeout-to-walk ratio. This often led to high pitch counts and leaving the game early. Maine pitched into the seventh inning in just 3 of his 25 starts, which didn't help the struggling bullpen. Altough, these problems could be attributed to injury. Maine made two trips to disabled list after the All-Star break, and had surgery to remove bone spurs from his shoulder at the end of the season.

Maine is expected to be ready to go for spring training and I think he will bounce back from his disappointing 2008 campaign and put up outstanding numbers in 2009. A healthy John Maine is a great asset to the Mets rotation.

Bring Back Perez?

A big question coming into the off-season is whether or not the Mets will resign Oliver Perez. Unsurprisingly, Perez filed for free-agency in October indicating he would like to test the market. With the wily Scott Boras as his agent, Perez is likely to command a large sum of money. It is believed that Boras wants a deal for Perez similar to the one that Carlos Silva signed last offseason. Silva signed a four-year, $48 million contract with the Mariners. The Mets have expressed that they have no interest in retaining Perez for longer than three years.

The Mets should let Perez and his league leading 105 walks go elsewhere, and collect the two draft picks they will recieve due to Perez's status as a type-A free agent.

Open Slots

Assuming the Mets do not resign Perez, they have two spots open in their starting rotation. There are several options in free agency and the trade market that will be considered. I think Derek Lowe should be the top candidate to fill one of the positions.

Lowe is 35-years-old, but he has been nothing but consistent since coming to the Dodgers in 2005. In four years in Los Angeles, Lowe never had an ERA higher than 3.88. The two biggest reasons for acquiring Lowe are that he throws strikes and eats innings. Since becoming a starter in 2002, Lowe has averaged 208 innings pitched and just 57 walks per season. Last season, Lowe walked just 45 batters. Oliver Perez reached that walk total on June 7.

The key to Lowe's success is his sinker, and this will likely allow him to continue competing at a high level into his early-40's. An important part of Lowe's resume is his postseason and September success. Lowe was dominant in the midst of a pennant race in September 2008 when he recorded a 0.59 ERA. The 6'6" Lowe boasts a career postseason ERA of 3.35, and he won the clinching game of every series for the 2004 World Champion Red Sox.

There are several things the Mets could do to fill the fifth spot in their rotation. They could sign a free agent such as Jon Garland, or Randy Wolf. They could also explore the trade market for a guy like Javier Vazquez, who holds an expensive contract that the White Sox would like to unload.

The Mets could also look to within their system to fill the final slot in their rotation. Top pitching prospect Jonathan Niese could be given a chance to pitch a full year in the majors. Jason Vargas, a former Marlins prospect who has pitched very well in the Arizona Fall League, could compete with Niese for the job in spring training.

The top priority for the Mets this season will be pitching. A solid rotation that goes deep into games will only help the bullpen. Up next I take a look at the offseason outlook for the Mets bullpen.