Murphy Will Play Left in 2009

Omar Minaya was on Mets Hot Stove on SNY tonight. He informed the public that
Daniel Murphy strained his hamstring in the Arizona Fall League and will skip Winter Ball to prepare himself for Spring Training.

Minaya added that Murphy would have played left field in winter ball and that most of his playing time will be in left in 2009.

So it looks the like the Mets will go with Murphy and Tatis in left field. They will likely try to trade Luis Castillo and his big contract. Castillo will make $18.75 million over the next three years.

The Mets will already be paying two people that will not be of service to the team in 2009. They are Billy Wagner and Willie Randolph. The signing of a free agent second baseman will likely be dependent on how much of Castillo's contract they are able to unload, if any at all.

Orlando Hudson, a three-time Gold Glove winner, is the top candidate for the job, however he might not be an affordable option due to Castillo's contract.

If the Mets are unable to unload Castillo's contract I suggest that they hang on to him and sign a less expensive second baseman/utility man such as Nick Punto or Willie Bloomquist to platoon with Castillo.

Punto is a hard nosed player who would fit right in with Jerry Manuel's new strategy of situational hitting.

A Look Ahead to 2009, Part I: Starting Pitching

The MLB hot stove is heating up. At midnight, when the calendar turns to November 14th, teams can be begin to sign free agents.

At midnight, General Manager Omar Minaya and the Mets will begin perhaps their most important offseason in team history. In this three part series, I will look at the Mets needs for the 2009 season and how I think Minaya should take care of them.

The biggest need for the Mets this offseason is pitching. The most glaring weakness is the bullpen, but I will start with a look at the starting rotation. You know the saying, "pitching wins championships," and it all starts with the guys who take the hill to begin the game. Consistent quality starts from the rotation can work wonders for the bullpen.

Under Contract

Johan Santana, 2008 Stats: 16-7, 2.53 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 206 K's.

The biggest piece of the Mets rotation was acuired last off-season. Santana proved to Mets fans this year that he can be an the ace in New York. His complete game shutout on three days rest in a must-win game was an incredible feat, especially since Santana did it with a torn meniscus in his knee.

Santana led the National League in ERA and innings pitched en route to finishing third in the Cy Young voting in 2008. The Mets will rely on him to carry the load in 2009 and he will set the tone for the rest of the rotation.

Mike Pelfrey, 2008 Stats: 13-11, 3.72 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 110 K's.

Omar Minaya was able to hold onto Pelfrey, who could have been part of the Santana deal, and it worked out in his favor. Mets' fans were growing impatient with the young prospect, but the 6'7" Pelfrey had a breakout season in 2008.

After a slow start, Pelfrey emerged as a solid pitcher for the Mets during the summer months when he posted a 3.00 ERA to go with an 11-2 record. Pelfrey's success can be attributed to his regaining his confidence and subsequently pounding the strike zone with his mid-90's sinking fastball. Big Pelf tied for the National League lead with 29 double plays. Expect Pelfrey to build on his success in 2009 at Citi Field.

John Maine, 2008 Stats: 10-8, 4.18 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 122 K's.

After a solid 2007, Maine seemed to struggle throughout 2008. Maine often had problems finding the strike zone, as evidenced by his 1.82 strikeout-to-walk ratio. This often led to high pitch counts and leaving the game early. Maine pitched into the seventh inning in just 3 of his 25 starts, which didn't help the struggling bullpen. Altough, these problems could be attributed to injury. Maine made two trips to disabled list after the All-Star break, and had surgery to remove bone spurs from his shoulder at the end of the season.

Maine is expected to be ready to go for spring training and I think he will bounce back from his disappointing 2008 campaign and put up outstanding numbers in 2009. A healthy John Maine is a great asset to the Mets rotation.

Bring Back Perez?

A big question coming into the off-season is whether or not the Mets will resign Oliver Perez. Unsurprisingly, Perez filed for free-agency in October indicating he would like to test the market. With the wily Scott Boras as his agent, Perez is likely to command a large sum of money. It is believed that Boras wants a deal for Perez similar to the one that Carlos Silva signed last offseason. Silva signed a four-year, $48 million contract with the Mariners. The Mets have expressed that they have no interest in retaining Perez for longer than three years.

The Mets should let Perez and his league leading 105 walks go elsewhere, and collect the two draft picks they will recieve due to Perez's status as a type-A free agent.

Open Slots

Assuming the Mets do not resign Perez, they have two spots open in their starting rotation. There are several options in free agency and the trade market that will be considered. I think Derek Lowe should be the top candidate to fill one of the positions.

Lowe is 35-years-old, but he has been nothing but consistent since coming to the Dodgers in 2005. In four years in Los Angeles, Lowe never had an ERA higher than 3.88. The two biggest reasons for acquiring Lowe are that he throws strikes and eats innings. Since becoming a starter in 2002, Lowe has averaged 208 innings pitched and just 57 walks per season. Last season, Lowe walked just 45 batters. Oliver Perez reached that walk total on June 7.

The key to Lowe's success is his sinker, and this will likely allow him to continue competing at a high level into his early-40's. An important part of Lowe's resume is his postseason and September success. Lowe was dominant in the midst of a pennant race in September 2008 when he recorded a 0.59 ERA. The 6'6" Lowe boasts a career postseason ERA of 3.35, and he won the clinching game of every series for the 2004 World Champion Red Sox.

There are several things the Mets could do to fill the fifth spot in their rotation. They could sign a free agent such as Jon Garland, or Randy Wolf. They could also explore the trade market for a guy like Javier Vazquez, who holds an expensive contract that the White Sox would like to unload.

The Mets could also look to within their system to fill the final slot in their rotation. Top pitching prospect Jonathan Niese could be given a chance to pitch a full year in the majors. Jason Vargas, a former Marlins prospect who has pitched very well in the Arizona Fall League, could compete with Niese for the job in spring training.

The top priority for the Mets this season will be pitching. A solid rotation that goes deep into games will only help the bullpen. Up next I take a look at the offseason outlook for the Mets bullpen.

Mets' Youngsters Performing Well in Arizona Fall League

The Arizona Fall League is a six-team league in the Phoenix area created by Major League Baseball. The purpose is to get prospects some extra playing time and hopefully accelerate their path to the majors.

Each MLB team sends six players most of whom are Double-A and Triple-A players. Each team is allowed to send just one Class-A player. No player with more than one year of MLB service is eligible to participate with the exception of Rule 5 draftees. The six AFL teams have thirty players each.

Several of the Mets representatives already have some Major League experience. The Mets prospects, led by Daniel Murphy, have joined forces with White Sox, Padres, and Cardinals prospects to lead the Peoria Saguaros (11-5) to the best record in the league thus far.

Joining Murphy in the desert are pitchers Eddie Kunz, Bobby Parnell, and Jason Vargas, as well as catcher Josh Thole, and third baseman Shawn Bowman.

Bowman and Thole have emerged from the shadows and are hitting .297 and .375 respectively.

After a brief major league stint that consisted of 2.2 innings in 2008, Kunz is serving as the closer for the Saguaros (a type of cactus). Kunz was superb in his first four innings in the AFL. He didn't allow a run while recording two saves. Unfortunately, he imploded in his fifth outing, surrending eight earned runs in just a third of an inning against Mesa. Hopefully, Kunz will be able to recover from this poor outing. He holds an ERA of 12.79 in 6.1 innings for Peoria.

The other Mets pitchers have fared much better. Parnell, who had a 5.40 ERA in 5 September innings with the big league club, has a 2.84 ERA in 6.1 innings in the AFL. In his last outing, Parnell threw four innings while allowing just one hit and striking out five.

Jason Vargas, who was acquired from Florida prior to the 2007 season, has been dominant this fall. Vargas, who was recovering from hip surgery this season, has yet to allow a run in 12.2 innings. Furthermore, he has surrendered just five hits and one walk while striking out seven.

On to the man who everyone is eager to hear about: Daniel Murphy.

Murphy has had quite a fall so far. In ten games he has hit .400 with a .480 OBP, two homers, and 11 RBI, and leads the team with 12 runs scored.

Murphy has been playing second base for Peoria, however this will probably not be the position he plays in New York. According to Omar Minaya, Murphy is seen as the man who will take over for Carlos Delgado at first base, perhaps in 2010. For now, Murphy will likely play the outfield in New York.

The Arizona Fall League season runs up to the week prior to Thanksgiving. The Mets youngsters and the Saguaros have 22 games remaining.

Three Mets Prospects Participate in Rising Stars Showcase

New York Mets' prospects Daniel Murphy, Eddie Kunz, and Josh Thole participated in the Arizona Fall League Rising Stars Showcase on Friday, October 24th.

Murphy came into all-star game as a pinch hitter and drew a walk, typical of the disciplined Murphy who has a .480 on-base percentage in ten Arizona Fall League games.

Catcher Josh Thole also walked and knocked in a run with a single in two plate appearances.

Kunz, on the other hand struggled, allowing a walk, two hits, and a run in two-thirds of an inning. He was stuck with a blown save when his American team lost 7-6 to the National team.

Why the New York Mets Should NOT Sign Francisco Rodriguez

The moment it was announced that Billy Wagner needed Tommy John Surgery and would likely miss the entire 2009 season (the remainder of his contract with the Mets), Mets fans began anointing Francisco "K-Rod" Rodriguez as the new closer.

The current Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim closer sits atop most Mets fans' off-season wish lists. His record-breaking 62 saves during the 2008 season just added fuel to the fire of Mets fans' desire for Rodriguez.

Unlike the masses, I don't think signing Rodriguez to the lucrative deal he is looking for would be such a good idea. Sure, K-Rod is a good closer at this point in time, I will not deny that; but, for several reasons, I don't want the Mets to sign him.

"Rivera Money"

According to Rodriguez's agent, Paul Kinzer, he wants at least five years at "Mariano money." Mariano refers to Yankees' closer Mariano Rivera who before the 2008 season signed a three-year deal worth $45 million. So, Rodriguez will be looking for a five-year contract worth about $75 million.

Rodriguez is good, but he is not Mariano Rivera. With the Mets needing to fill holes in other areas such as middle relief, starting pitcher, and possibly second base, it would not be wise to spend that kind of money in one place.

Saves Are a Misleading Stat

Francisco Rodriguez recorded 62 saves this season, breaking the single-season record of 57 held by Bobby Thigpen. This led many fans to declare Rodriguez as the best closer in the major leagues. I disagree.

Rodriguez had 69 save opportunities in 2008. The closer with the next highest amount of save opportunities in 2008 was Houston's Jose Valverde with 51. Rodriguez had 18 more opportunities than any other closer. EIGHTEEN MORE OPPORTUNITIES! Of course he's going to have more saves than anyone else if he gets that many more opportunities.Rodriguez did convert 90 percent of his save opportunities, which is very good, but there were closers who fared better. Phillies closer Brad Lidge converted all 41 of his save opportunities, Yankees closer Mariano Rivera had a 98 percent conversion rate, and Royals' closer Joakim Soria converted 93 percent of his save opportunities. Among closers with at least 20 save opportunities, 11 converted at least 87 percent of their save opportunities.

In my opinion, Mariano Rivera, Brad Lidge, Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon, and Joakim Soria are better closers than Francisco Rodriguez.

K-Rod on the Decline

Francisco Rodriguez stormed onto the seen very late in the 2002 season. During the Angels run to the World Championship in the playoffs, Rodriguez was an important part of the Anaheim bullpen. The baby-faced 20-year-old was armed with a 98-mph fastball, and earned the nickname "K-Rod" by striking out 28 batters in 18.1 postseason innings.

However, since taking over the closer role in 2004, things seem to have changed a little. K-Rod has lost some velocity on his fastball, which now tops out at 94 miles per hour. Also, with the exception of 2006, K-Rod's stats have been on a steady decline. Here is his WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched), K/BB (strikeouts per walk), and K/9 (strikeouts per nine innings) from 2004-2008:

Year WHIP K/BB K/9

2004 1.00 3.72 13.17

2005 1.14 2.84 12.16

2006 1.10 3.50 12.08

2007 1.25 2.64 12.02

2008 1.29 2.26 10.14



Over the years, Rodriguez has been allowing more base runners while walking more batters and striking out fewer batters. This is definitely not a good trend.

Rodriguez's 2008 WHIP of 1.29 places him 69th among relievers with at least 40 innings pitched. At some point, base runners will lead to runs.

I will not argue that Rodriguez is a good closer. However, looking at this steady decline leads me to believe that he will not be a good closer in a couple of years.

That is why the Mets should not sign him to a 5 year contract, and should not pay him "Rivera money", because fans will expect a Rivera quality closer, and that is not what they will get.