Mets Make Offer to Lowe

The Mets have offered Derek Lowe a three-year contract worth a total of 36 million dollars ($12 million per year). That's much smaller than the five-year $90 million deal Lowe was apparently seeking at the beginning of the offseason.

There isn't much competition for Lowe, if there is any at all. The Red Sox are the only other team that have been mentioned and they just signed Brad Penny to round out their rotation. Boston now has Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester, Tim Wakefield, and Penny. Plus Clay Buchholz is waiting in the wings, so it appers the Sox don't need Lowe at all.

Lowe would be a great addition to the Mets rotation and would give them one of the strongest rotations in the NL. He would also help ease the bullpen's workload because he throws many innings. Since becoming a starter in 2002, Lowe has averaged 208 innings pitched and just 57 walks per season. Last season, Lowe walked just 45 batters.

Mets Close to Deal with Lowe

The Mets are reportedly close to signing free agent pitcher Derek Lowe. Earlier in the offseason when analyzing the Mets starting pitching, I hoped they would sign Lowe.

The deal is expected to be for 3-4 years at $14-16 million per season.

The market for Lowe had been slow because he is represented by super agent Scott Boras. Once Boras completed negotiations with the Yankees for Mark Teixiera (8 years, $180 million), talks about Lowe were able to become more serious.

The Red Sox appear to be the only other team seriously considering Lowe.

Negotiations will be put on hold for the Christmas holiday, but the deal could be done by New Year's day.

Wright to Play for Team USA

Mets third baseman David Wright will play for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic in March according to Anthony DiComo of MLB.com.

Alex Rodriguez was the third baseman for the US in the 2006 classic, but has announced that he will play for the Domincan Republic this time.

Wright will battle Braves star Chipper Jones for the starting job at third base. Davey Johnson, manager of the 1986 World Champion Mets, will be the manager for Team USA at the '09 Classic.

Johnson has a strong desire to win the gold medal and asked Wright if he was ready to play nine innings. "I'll be ready to go 18 if you want," Wright responded.

Derek Jeter, Dustin Pedroia, Grady Sizemore, Mark Derosa, Ryan Braun, Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, and John Lackey have announced they will play for Team USA along with Wright.

Team USA will be playing the first round in Toronto (Pool C) against Canada, Italy, and Venezuela.

"All Systems Go" For Putz

The Mets officially introduced J.J. Putz to the media today. Putz, the former Mariners closer, was acquired from Seattle on December 10th. For details of the trade click here.

Putz was presented with a number 40 jersey. He wore number 20 with the Mariners, I'm not sure why he changed, but it's not a big deal.

Putz made two trips to the disabled list last season. One with a hyperextended pitching elbow, and another with right torso inflammation. When asked about the status of his injuries, he said he has been throwing and working out on his off-season program for a few weeks and that everything felt just fine. Putz added, "it's all systems go."

The Mets new setup man seemed excited to pitch in the spotlight in the big city. He displayed a cool, calm, and collected demeanor.

One thing I'm excited about is that Putz is somewhat of a prankster. Putz mentioned that he was a fan of shaving cream pies and that plenty of those will be handed out this season. He even commented that he would get SNY's Kevin Burkhardt with a pie.

This is exactly the type of thing the Mets need, some fun to lighten things up during a long season. I look forward to seeing Putz sneak up on an unsuspecting teammate with a towel full of shaving cream after a big win.

To see videos from the press conference and Putz's interview with Kevin Burkhardt click here.

Minaya Says No Manny for Mets

In an interview with WFAN radio, Omar Minaya expressed his interests for the remainder of the offseason. He will be looking for pitching, speed, and defense. When asked if he would make an offer to Manny Ramirez, he said, "No."

The Mets don't need Manny Ramirez.

They need pitching. The offense is fine. In 2008, the Mets ranked 2nd in the National League in runs scored. Meanwhile, they ranked 13th in bullpen ERA.

We can look to 2006 to see what makes the Mets succesful. In 2006, when the Mets reached the NLCS, they led the NL in bullpen ERA. Pitching is the answer.

An offense consisting of Jose Reyes, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, and Carlos Delgado is going to be just fine. Plus there will be contributions from Ryan Church (whether they will be big or small remains to be seen).

The bullpen has been solidified with arguable the best one-two punch (Putz and K-Rod) in the majors. The Mets might be looking for a left handed reliever and are certainly looking for another starting pitcher.

Derek Lowe and Oliver Perez are the free agent targets to make a big impact in the rotation. Other pitchers such as Randy Wolf, Jon Garland, or Jason Marquis may be acquired to compete with Jon Niese for the fifth spot in the rotation.

Bullpen Taking Shape, Mets Possibly Looking for a Lefty

The Mets have certainly improved their bullpen this offseason with numerous moves including the acquisitions of Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz.

Those two elite pitchers have the closer and eigth inning setup roles locked down. The remainder of the Mets bullpen will consist of lefty specialist Pedro Feliciano, Sean Green (acquired with Putz from Seattle), and several pitchers competing for the final three spots.

Brian Stokes is a likely candidate to take the long relief role. Duaner Sanchez, Robert Parnell, Connor Robertson, Rule 5 draftee Rocky Cherry, Eddie Kunz and Carlos Muniz are all candidates for spots in the Citi Field bullpen.

The Mets have had two left-handers (Feliciano and Scott Schoeneweis) in their 'pen for the last two seasons and could be looking to add a second lefty for the 2009 bullpen.

Joe Beimel, who posted a 2.02 ERA with the Dodgers in 2008, is top lefty reliever. However, he will likely command $4 million per season. Since the Mets are already paying $4.4 million for Putz to be their setup man, they are unlikely to sign Beimel.

More likely options are Japanese pitcher Ken Takahashi, former Braves reliever Will Ohman, and ex-Brewer Brian Shouse.

Acquiring a starting pitcher or two seems to be the priority right now, but Omar Minaya is likely keeping an eye on the lefty reliever market.

Mets Trade Schoeneweis to Arizona

The New York Mets traded left handed relief pitcher Scott Schoeneweis to the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for RHP Connor Robertson.

Schoeneweis served as a lefty specialist for the Mets for the last two seasons. He had a 3.34 ERA in 2008 and lefties hit just .178 against him.

Schoeneweis was scheduled to make $3.6 million in 2009. The Mets will cover $1.6 million of his 2009 salary. Perhaps Omar Minaya is trying to cut down payroll a little to make room for the contracts of Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz, as well as making more deals.

Connor Robertson appeared in six games for the Diamondbacks last season. The reliever allowed four earned runs in seven innings pitched.

Robertson, who will likely make the league minimum ($400,000) in 2009 (if he makes the big league club), had success in the minor leagues. In 306 minor league innings, Robertson racked up a whopping 383 strikeouts (11.3 K/9) while issuing 123 walks (3.11 K/BB). He has a career 3.32 ERA in the minors.

Last offseason, he was sent to Arizona from Oakland alongside Dan Haren.

Robertson will likely compete with Eddie Kunz and Robert Parnell for a spot in the bullpen.

Mets Acquire Putz, Solidify Bullpen

Late Wednesday night the Mets picked up another piece for their bullpen puzzle. Former Mariners closer J.J. Putz is a now a member of the New York Mets.

The trade, which suddenly emerged on the forefront of rumors at about 9 P.M. eastern time Wednesday, also involved the Cleveland Indians.

The Mets have already signed free agent closer Francisco Rodriguez, so Putz will serve as the 8th inning setup man. This now turns the Mets bullpen from the worst in the majors to one of the best.

Putz struggled with injuries last season but previously was dominate for Seattle. In 2007, Putz posted a 1.38 ERA with a 0.70 WHIP and 82 strikeouts against just 13 walks (10.30 K/9, 6.30 K/BB).

The 6-foot-5, 250 pound Putz is under contract for 2009 and has an option for 2010.

Here are the details of the three team, twelve player trade:

Mets Receive:

RHP J.J. Putz

RHP Sean Green

OF Jeremy Reed (all from Seattle)

Mariners Receive:

OF Franklin Gutierrez (from Cleveland)

RHP Aaron Heilman (from New York)

OF Endy Chavez (from NYM)

1B Mike Carp (from NYM/Class AA)

LHP Jason Vargas (from NYM/AAA)

RHP Maikel Cleto (from NYM/A)

OF Ezequiel Carrera (from NYM/A)

Indians Receive:

RHP Joe Smith (from NYM)

INF Luis Valbuena (from Seattle/AAA)

Mets fans will be sorry to see Endy Chavez leave, meanwhile I'm sure many of those same fans are at Aaron Heilman's house now ready to take him to the airport. More on this and analysis of the trade will come later.

Rockies Sign Embree, Talks for Street Continue

Now that the Mets have the closer role filled with K-Rod, they will move to looking for a set-up man. At the top of the list is former closer Huston Street.

Street is currently a member of the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies needed a left-handed relief pitcher and were interested in Pedro Feliciano as mentioned in an earlier post.

Well, Colorado has agreed to a two year deal with left hander Alan Embree. I assume they won't be needing Feliciano anymore, but that's alright because Omar Minaya didn't want to include him in the deal anyway.

So now Minaya will have to package Aaron Heilman with a prospect to get Street. Rumors suggest that Minaya wants to include someone like Mike Carp, but the Rockies prefer Nick Evans.

K-Rod is a Met

The New York Mets and pitcher Fransisco Rodriguez have agreed on a three-year contract worth $37 million per season. Rodriguez will need a physical examination to complete the deal. It includes an option for a fourth year worth $14 million dollars.

The Mets have begun to shore up their notoriously shaky bullpen and Omar Minaya and Mets executives can now move on to acquiring more bullpen help and a starting pitcher or two.

A press conference is expected to occur by tomorrow to officially announce the signing.

The market played the Mets way this time and they were able to sign Rodriguez to a reasonable deal. A closer is not the only answer to the bullpen woes, however, and hopefully the Mets can acquire someone like Huston Street, Juan Cruz, Brandon Lyon, or Joe Beimel to anchor the back end of the pen with K-Rod

Mets Offer K-Rod Two Year Deal

The previously mentioned offer the Mets made to Francisco Rodriguez is reportedly a two year contract with an option for a third year. No monetary terms were mentioned and when approached by reporters K-Rod said the Mets told him not to discuss the negotiations.

Omar Minaya is doing a nice job playing the market in his favor. It looks like there are very few teams, if any, that are willing to pay the necessary money for K-Rod. The Mets and Indians seem to be the only interested teams at this point with the Brewers preoccupied with CC Sabathia. Rodriguez's former team, the Angels, seem ready to move on with someone else, perhaps Scott Shields or Jose Arredondo, at closer.

With such little demand for closers and a great amount of supply (K-Rod, Brian Fuentes, Kerry Wood, Trevor Hoffman, and closers rumored to be available via trade), Minaya certainly has the upper hand in these negotiations.

If Rodriguez and agent Paul Kinzer leave the offer on the table for too long the Mets can turn to another option, leaving K-Rod out in the cold with smaller market teams and an offer significantly smaller than what he was expecting coming into the offseason.

This contract would be ideal for the Mets, although negotations will continue and Kinzer will likely try to get a third year guarenteed.

Mets Pursuing Huston Street

The Colorado Rockies acquired Huston Street from the A's earlier this offseason as part of a deal that sent Matt Holliday to Oakland. Now, Colorado is willing to deal Street elsewhere.

Mets' GM Omar Minaya has been actively talking to Rockies' GM Dan O'Dowd about a trade for Street. The Mets would like to use Street as their set-up man in 2009 and the former closer would be a nice fit.

The 25-year-old Texan will not be eligible to become a free agent until 2011 and sports a career 2.88 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.

The centerpiece of the deal on the Mets side is maligned reliever Aaron Heilman, whom the Rockies believe could be an effective starting pitcher. The Rockies are looking for a left-handed set-up man and are interested in Pedro Feliciano. However, Omar Minaya does not seem to want to include him in the deal, prefering to trade a prospect instead. The two sides continue to work on the deal as they tend to their other business at the Winter Meetings.

After struggling with injuries in 2008 and early 2009, Street lost his closer's job in Oakland to rookie Brad Ziegler. Nonetheless, Street finished strong with a 1.74 ERA in September.

Winter Meetings Underway, Minaya Goes to Work

The Winter Meetings kicked off this morning in Las Vegas, Nevada. General Mangers and other executives from all 30 Major League teams as well as a plethora of player agents and even some players themselves are at the Bellagio hotel discussing contracts and trades.

According to Matthew Cerrone at MetsBlog, several players including Francisco Rodriguez and CC Sabathia have been spotted in the lobby of the Bellagio.

Mets GM Omar Minaya and his team of executives arrived last night along with owner Jeff Wilpon. Apparently, Minaya enjoyed a steak dinner with free agent closer Francisco Rodriguez shortly after arriving in Vegas.

According to SI's Jon Heyman, the Mets offered K-Rod a three-year contract possibly with an option for a fourth year. The deal is expected to be for $12-13 million per year.

So much for the talk of Rodriguez receiving a five-year deal worth $15 million per season, which would have been ridiculous. In October, I expressed concern about the Mets signing Rodriguez, saying he wasn't worth his asking price and could be on the decline. Although I still think K-Rod's saves record means nothing, a three-year deal sounds good to me and I'll be happy to have Rodriguez on those terms as long as the Mets acquire a quality set-up man to go with him.

Now that the offer is on the table its K-Rod's move. Minaya will not sit around and wait for his answer, as the Mets GM has already met with free agent closers Brian Fuentes and Trevor Hoffman this afternoon.

Stay tuned for more from the Winter Meetings.

Murphy Will Play Left in 2009

Omar Minaya was on Mets Hot Stove on SNY tonight. He informed the public that
Daniel Murphy strained his hamstring in the Arizona Fall League and will skip Winter Ball to prepare himself for Spring Training.

Minaya added that Murphy would have played left field in winter ball and that most of his playing time will be in left in 2009.

So it looks the like the Mets will go with Murphy and Tatis in left field. They will likely try to trade Luis Castillo and his big contract. Castillo will make $18.75 million over the next three years.

The Mets will already be paying two people that will not be of service to the team in 2009. They are Billy Wagner and Willie Randolph. The signing of a free agent second baseman will likely be dependent on how much of Castillo's contract they are able to unload, if any at all.

Orlando Hudson, a three-time Gold Glove winner, is the top candidate for the job, however he might not be an affordable option due to Castillo's contract.

If the Mets are unable to unload Castillo's contract I suggest that they hang on to him and sign a less expensive second baseman/utility man such as Nick Punto or Willie Bloomquist to platoon with Castillo.

Punto is a hard nosed player who would fit right in with Jerry Manuel's new strategy of situational hitting.

A Look Ahead to 2009, Part I: Starting Pitching

The MLB hot stove is heating up. At midnight, when the calendar turns to November 14th, teams can be begin to sign free agents.

At midnight, General Manager Omar Minaya and the Mets will begin perhaps their most important offseason in team history. In this three part series, I will look at the Mets needs for the 2009 season and how I think Minaya should take care of them.

The biggest need for the Mets this offseason is pitching. The most glaring weakness is the bullpen, but I will start with a look at the starting rotation. You know the saying, "pitching wins championships," and it all starts with the guys who take the hill to begin the game. Consistent quality starts from the rotation can work wonders for the bullpen.

Under Contract

Johan Santana, 2008 Stats: 16-7, 2.53 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 206 K's.

The biggest piece of the Mets rotation was acuired last off-season. Santana proved to Mets fans this year that he can be an the ace in New York. His complete game shutout on three days rest in a must-win game was an incredible feat, especially since Santana did it with a torn meniscus in his knee.

Santana led the National League in ERA and innings pitched en route to finishing third in the Cy Young voting in 2008. The Mets will rely on him to carry the load in 2009 and he will set the tone for the rest of the rotation.

Mike Pelfrey, 2008 Stats: 13-11, 3.72 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 110 K's.

Omar Minaya was able to hold onto Pelfrey, who could have been part of the Santana deal, and it worked out in his favor. Mets' fans were growing impatient with the young prospect, but the 6'7" Pelfrey had a breakout season in 2008.

After a slow start, Pelfrey emerged as a solid pitcher for the Mets during the summer months when he posted a 3.00 ERA to go with an 11-2 record. Pelfrey's success can be attributed to his regaining his confidence and subsequently pounding the strike zone with his mid-90's sinking fastball. Big Pelf tied for the National League lead with 29 double plays. Expect Pelfrey to build on his success in 2009 at Citi Field.

John Maine, 2008 Stats: 10-8, 4.18 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 122 K's.

After a solid 2007, Maine seemed to struggle throughout 2008. Maine often had problems finding the strike zone, as evidenced by his 1.82 strikeout-to-walk ratio. This often led to high pitch counts and leaving the game early. Maine pitched into the seventh inning in just 3 of his 25 starts, which didn't help the struggling bullpen. Altough, these problems could be attributed to injury. Maine made two trips to disabled list after the All-Star break, and had surgery to remove bone spurs from his shoulder at the end of the season.

Maine is expected to be ready to go for spring training and I think he will bounce back from his disappointing 2008 campaign and put up outstanding numbers in 2009. A healthy John Maine is a great asset to the Mets rotation.

Bring Back Perez?

A big question coming into the off-season is whether or not the Mets will resign Oliver Perez. Unsurprisingly, Perez filed for free-agency in October indicating he would like to test the market. With the wily Scott Boras as his agent, Perez is likely to command a large sum of money. It is believed that Boras wants a deal for Perez similar to the one that Carlos Silva signed last offseason. Silva signed a four-year, $48 million contract with the Mariners. The Mets have expressed that they have no interest in retaining Perez for longer than three years.

The Mets should let Perez and his league leading 105 walks go elsewhere, and collect the two draft picks they will recieve due to Perez's status as a type-A free agent.

Open Slots

Assuming the Mets do not resign Perez, they have two spots open in their starting rotation. There are several options in free agency and the trade market that will be considered. I think Derek Lowe should be the top candidate to fill one of the positions.

Lowe is 35-years-old, but he has been nothing but consistent since coming to the Dodgers in 2005. In four years in Los Angeles, Lowe never had an ERA higher than 3.88. The two biggest reasons for acquiring Lowe are that he throws strikes and eats innings. Since becoming a starter in 2002, Lowe has averaged 208 innings pitched and just 57 walks per season. Last season, Lowe walked just 45 batters. Oliver Perez reached that walk total on June 7.

The key to Lowe's success is his sinker, and this will likely allow him to continue competing at a high level into his early-40's. An important part of Lowe's resume is his postseason and September success. Lowe was dominant in the midst of a pennant race in September 2008 when he recorded a 0.59 ERA. The 6'6" Lowe boasts a career postseason ERA of 3.35, and he won the clinching game of every series for the 2004 World Champion Red Sox.

There are several things the Mets could do to fill the fifth spot in their rotation. They could sign a free agent such as Jon Garland, or Randy Wolf. They could also explore the trade market for a guy like Javier Vazquez, who holds an expensive contract that the White Sox would like to unload.

The Mets could also look to within their system to fill the final slot in their rotation. Top pitching prospect Jonathan Niese could be given a chance to pitch a full year in the majors. Jason Vargas, a former Marlins prospect who has pitched very well in the Arizona Fall League, could compete with Niese for the job in spring training.

The top priority for the Mets this season will be pitching. A solid rotation that goes deep into games will only help the bullpen. Up next I take a look at the offseason outlook for the Mets bullpen.

Mets' Youngsters Performing Well in Arizona Fall League

The Arizona Fall League is a six-team league in the Phoenix area created by Major League Baseball. The purpose is to get prospects some extra playing time and hopefully accelerate their path to the majors.

Each MLB team sends six players most of whom are Double-A and Triple-A players. Each team is allowed to send just one Class-A player. No player with more than one year of MLB service is eligible to participate with the exception of Rule 5 draftees. The six AFL teams have thirty players each.

Several of the Mets representatives already have some Major League experience. The Mets prospects, led by Daniel Murphy, have joined forces with White Sox, Padres, and Cardinals prospects to lead the Peoria Saguaros (11-5) to the best record in the league thus far.

Joining Murphy in the desert are pitchers Eddie Kunz, Bobby Parnell, and Jason Vargas, as well as catcher Josh Thole, and third baseman Shawn Bowman.

Bowman and Thole have emerged from the shadows and are hitting .297 and .375 respectively.

After a brief major league stint that consisted of 2.2 innings in 2008, Kunz is serving as the closer for the Saguaros (a type of cactus). Kunz was superb in his first four innings in the AFL. He didn't allow a run while recording two saves. Unfortunately, he imploded in his fifth outing, surrending eight earned runs in just a third of an inning against Mesa. Hopefully, Kunz will be able to recover from this poor outing. He holds an ERA of 12.79 in 6.1 innings for Peoria.

The other Mets pitchers have fared much better. Parnell, who had a 5.40 ERA in 5 September innings with the big league club, has a 2.84 ERA in 6.1 innings in the AFL. In his last outing, Parnell threw four innings while allowing just one hit and striking out five.

Jason Vargas, who was acquired from Florida prior to the 2007 season, has been dominant this fall. Vargas, who was recovering from hip surgery this season, has yet to allow a run in 12.2 innings. Furthermore, he has surrendered just five hits and one walk while striking out seven.

On to the man who everyone is eager to hear about: Daniel Murphy.

Murphy has had quite a fall so far. In ten games he has hit .400 with a .480 OBP, two homers, and 11 RBI, and leads the team with 12 runs scored.

Murphy has been playing second base for Peoria, however this will probably not be the position he plays in New York. According to Omar Minaya, Murphy is seen as the man who will take over for Carlos Delgado at first base, perhaps in 2010. For now, Murphy will likely play the outfield in New York.

The Arizona Fall League season runs up to the week prior to Thanksgiving. The Mets youngsters and the Saguaros have 22 games remaining.

Three Mets Prospects Participate in Rising Stars Showcase

New York Mets' prospects Daniel Murphy, Eddie Kunz, and Josh Thole participated in the Arizona Fall League Rising Stars Showcase on Friday, October 24th.

Murphy came into all-star game as a pinch hitter and drew a walk, typical of the disciplined Murphy who has a .480 on-base percentage in ten Arizona Fall League games.

Catcher Josh Thole also walked and knocked in a run with a single in two plate appearances.

Kunz, on the other hand struggled, allowing a walk, two hits, and a run in two-thirds of an inning. He was stuck with a blown save when his American team lost 7-6 to the National team.

Why the New York Mets Should NOT Sign Francisco Rodriguez

The moment it was announced that Billy Wagner needed Tommy John Surgery and would likely miss the entire 2009 season (the remainder of his contract with the Mets), Mets fans began anointing Francisco "K-Rod" Rodriguez as the new closer.

The current Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim closer sits atop most Mets fans' off-season wish lists. His record-breaking 62 saves during the 2008 season just added fuel to the fire of Mets fans' desire for Rodriguez.

Unlike the masses, I don't think signing Rodriguez to the lucrative deal he is looking for would be such a good idea. Sure, K-Rod is a good closer at this point in time, I will not deny that; but, for several reasons, I don't want the Mets to sign him.

"Rivera Money"

According to Rodriguez's agent, Paul Kinzer, he wants at least five years at "Mariano money." Mariano refers to Yankees' closer Mariano Rivera who before the 2008 season signed a three-year deal worth $45 million. So, Rodriguez will be looking for a five-year contract worth about $75 million.

Rodriguez is good, but he is not Mariano Rivera. With the Mets needing to fill holes in other areas such as middle relief, starting pitcher, and possibly second base, it would not be wise to spend that kind of money in one place.

Saves Are a Misleading Stat

Francisco Rodriguez recorded 62 saves this season, breaking the single-season record of 57 held by Bobby Thigpen. This led many fans to declare Rodriguez as the best closer in the major leagues. I disagree.

Rodriguez had 69 save opportunities in 2008. The closer with the next highest amount of save opportunities in 2008 was Houston's Jose Valverde with 51. Rodriguez had 18 more opportunities than any other closer. EIGHTEEN MORE OPPORTUNITIES! Of course he's going to have more saves than anyone else if he gets that many more opportunities.Rodriguez did convert 90 percent of his save opportunities, which is very good, but there were closers who fared better. Phillies closer Brad Lidge converted all 41 of his save opportunities, Yankees closer Mariano Rivera had a 98 percent conversion rate, and Royals' closer Joakim Soria converted 93 percent of his save opportunities. Among closers with at least 20 save opportunities, 11 converted at least 87 percent of their save opportunities.

In my opinion, Mariano Rivera, Brad Lidge, Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon, and Joakim Soria are better closers than Francisco Rodriguez.

K-Rod on the Decline

Francisco Rodriguez stormed onto the seen very late in the 2002 season. During the Angels run to the World Championship in the playoffs, Rodriguez was an important part of the Anaheim bullpen. The baby-faced 20-year-old was armed with a 98-mph fastball, and earned the nickname "K-Rod" by striking out 28 batters in 18.1 postseason innings.

However, since taking over the closer role in 2004, things seem to have changed a little. K-Rod has lost some velocity on his fastball, which now tops out at 94 miles per hour. Also, with the exception of 2006, K-Rod's stats have been on a steady decline. Here is his WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched), K/BB (strikeouts per walk), and K/9 (strikeouts per nine innings) from 2004-2008:

Year WHIP K/BB K/9

2004 1.00 3.72 13.17

2005 1.14 2.84 12.16

2006 1.10 3.50 12.08

2007 1.25 2.64 12.02

2008 1.29 2.26 10.14



Over the years, Rodriguez has been allowing more base runners while walking more batters and striking out fewer batters. This is definitely not a good trend.

Rodriguez's 2008 WHIP of 1.29 places him 69th among relievers with at least 40 innings pitched. At some point, base runners will lead to runs.

I will not argue that Rodriguez is a good closer. However, looking at this steady decline leads me to believe that he will not be a good closer in a couple of years.

That is why the Mets should not sign him to a 5 year contract, and should not pay him "Rivera money", because fans will expect a Rivera quality closer, and that is not what they will get.