Sunday, October 26, 2008

Mets' Youngsters Performing Well in Arizona Fall League


The Arizona Fall League is a six-team league in the Phoenix area created by Major League Baseball. The purpose is to get prospects some extra playing time and hopefully accelerate their path to the majors.

Each MLB team sends six players most of whom are Double-A and Triple-A players. Each team is allowed to send just one Class-A player. No player with more than one year of MLB service is eligible to participate with the exception of Rule 5 draftees. The six AFL teams have thirty players each.

Several of the Mets representatives already have some Major League experience. The Mets prospects, led by Daniel Murphy, have joined forces with White Sox, Padres, and Cardinals prospects to lead the Peoria Saguaros (11-5) to the best record in the league thus far.

Joining Murphy in the desert are pitchers Eddie Kunz, Bobby Parnell, and Jason Vargas, as well as catcher Josh Thole, and third baseman Shawn Bowman.

Bowman and Thole have emerged from the shadows and are hitting .297 and .375 respectively.

After a brief major league stint that consisted of 2.2 innings in 2008, Kunz is serving as the closer for the Saguaros (a type of cactus). Kunz was superb in his first four innings in the AFL. He didn't allow a run while recording two saves. Unfortunately, he imploded in his fifth outing, surrending eight earned runs in just a third of an inning against Mesa. Hopefully, Kunz will be able to recover from this poor outing. He holds an ERA of 12.79 in 6.1 innings for Peoria.

The other Mets pitchers have fared much better. Parnell, who had a 5.40 ERA in 5 September innings with the big league club, has a 2.84 ERA in 6.1 innings in the AFL. In his last outing, Parnell threw four innings while allowing just one hit and striking out five.

Jason Vargas, who was acquired from Florida prior to the 2007 season, has been dominant this fall. Vargas, who was recovering from hip surgery this season, has yet to allow a run in 12.2 innings. Furthermore, he has surrendered just five hits and one walk while striking out seven.

On to the man who everyone is eager to hear about: Daniel Murphy.

Murphy has had quite a fall so far. In ten games he has hit .400 with a .480 OBP, two homers, and 11 RBI, and leads the team with 12 runs scored.

Murphy has been playing second base for Peoria, however this will probably not be the position he plays in New York. According to Omar Minaya, Murphy is seen as the man who will take over for Carlos Delgado at first base, perhaps in 2010. For now, Murphy will likely play the outfield in New York.

The Arizona Fall League season runs up to the week prior to Thanksgiving. The Mets youngsters and the Saguaros have 22 games remaining.

Three Mets Prospects Participate in Rising Stars Showcase



New York Mets' prospects Daniel Murphy, Eddie Kunz, and Josh Thole participated in the Arizona Fall League Rising Stars Showcase on Friday, October 24th.


Murphy came into all-star game as a pinch hitter and drew a walk, typical of the disciplined Murphy who has a .480 on-base percentage in ten Arizona Fall League games.


Catcher Josh Thole also walked and knocked in a run with a single in two plate appearances.


Kunz, on the other hand struggled, allowing a walk, two hits, and a run in two-thirds of an inning. He was stuck with a blown save when his American team lost 7-6 to the National team.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Why the New York Mets Should NOT Sign Francisco Rodriguez


The moment it was announced that Billy Wagner needed Tommy John Surgery and would likely miss the entire 2009 season (the remainder of his contract with the Mets), Mets fans began anointing Francisco "K-Rod" Rodriguez as the new closer.

The current Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim closer sits atop most Mets fans' off-season wish lists. His record-breaking 62 saves during the 2008 season just added fuel to the fire of Mets fans' desire for Rodriguez.

Unlike the masses, I don't think signing Rodriguez to the lucrative deal he is looking for would be such a good idea. Sure, K-Rod is a good closer at this point in time, I will not deny that; but, for several reasons, I don't want the Mets to sign him.

"Rivera Money"

According to Rodriguez's agent, Paul Kinzer, he wants at least five years at "Mariano money." Mariano refers to Yankees' closer Mariano Rivera who before the 2008 season signed a three-year deal worth $45 million. So, Rodriguez will be looking for a five-year contract worth about $75 million.

Rodriguez is good, but he is not Mariano Rivera. With the Mets needing to fill holes in other areas such as middle relief, starting pitcher, and possibly second base, it would not be wise to spend that kind of money in one place.

Saves Are a Misleading Stat

Francisco Rodriguez recorded 62 saves this season, breaking the single-season record of 57 held by Bobby Thigpen. This led many fans to declare Rodriguez as the best closer in the major leagues. I disagree.

Rodriguez had 69 save opportunities in 2008. The closer with the next highest amount of save opportunities in 2008 was Houston's Jose Valverde with 51. Rodriguez had 18 more opportunities than any other closer. EIGHTEEN MORE OPPORTUNITIES! Of course he's going to have more saves than anyone else if he gets that many more opportunities.Rodriguez did convert 90 percent of his save opportunities, which is very good, but there were closers who fared better. Phillies closer Brad Lidge converted all 41 of his save opportunities, Yankees closer Mariano Rivera had a 98 percent conversion rate, and Royals' closer Joakim Soria converted 93 percent of his save opportunities. Among closers with at least 20 save opportunities, 11 converted at least 87 percent of their save opportunities.

In my opinion, Mariano Rivera, Brad Lidge, Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon, and Joakim Soria are better closers than Francisco Rodriguez.

K-Rod on the Decline

Francisco Rodriguez stormed onto the seen very late in the 2002 season. During the Angels run to the World Championship in the playoffs, Rodriguez was an important part of the Anaheim bullpen. The baby-faced 20-year-old was armed with a 98-mph fastball, and earned the nickname "K-Rod" by striking out 28 batters in 18.1 postseason innings.

However, since taking over the closer role in 2004, things seem to have changed a little. K-Rod has lost some velocity on his fastball, which now tops out at 94 miles per hour. Also, with the exception of 2006, K-Rod's stats have been on a steady decline. Here is his WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched), K/BB (strikeouts per walk), and K/9 (strikeouts per nine innings) from 2004-2008:

Year WHIP K/BB K/9

2004 1.00 3.72 13.17

2005 1.14 2.84 12.16

2006 1.10 3.50 12.08

2007 1.25 2.64 12.02

2008 1.29 2.26 10.14



Over the years, Rodriguez has been allowing more base runners while walking more batters and striking out fewer batters. This is definitely not a good trend.

Rodriguez's 2008 WHIP of 1.29 places him 69th among relievers with at least 40 innings pitched. At some point, base runners will lead to runs.

I will not argue that Rodriguez is a good closer. However, looking at this steady decline leads me to believe that he will not be a good closer in a couple of years.

That is why the Mets should not sign him to a 5 year contract, and should not pay him "Rivera money", because fans will expect a Rivera quality closer, and that is not what they will get.